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The global economy is even more cooked than we first thought.
That’s the headline from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, which just announced its growth forecasts for the world.
With its chief economist getting up on stage and sugarcoating nothing. [Lead B roll into clip]
Caption: “It doesn’t matter if you are a G20 economy, a non-G20 economy, if you are big or if you are a small economy, if you are open or relatively more closed, we downgraded almost everybody.”
So whereas the global economy grew by 3.4% in 2023 and 3.3% last year, it’s expected to slow to 2.9% this year and the next. [Image and Quote, find “2.9”]
With much of the slowdown concentrated in China, Mexico, Canada and especially the United States.
Which must have come as a surprise to Donald Trump, because at 1:00 a.m. this morning, just hours before the OECD report, he posted: “Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!”
Nevermind that the U.S. economy shrank by 0.2% year-over year last quarter. [Image]
Now, assuming that tariff rates remain the same, the OECD predicts that U.S. growth will slow to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year. [Image and Quote, find “1.5”]
Which is lower than the 2.2% predicted back in March, and way lower than the 2.8% growth actually experienced in 2024.
And although it didn’t mention him by name, the OECD seemed clear about who’s to blame: Donald J. Trump.
With it attributing the slowdown to the tariffs, the policy uncertainty, the decrease in net immigration, and a “sizable reduction” in the federal workforce (a la the DOGE cuts). [Quote]
Also, it projected that inflation will shoot up from a relatively low 2.3% in April to nearly 4% by the end of the year. [Image and Quote, find “3.9”]
With it then expected to cool down in 2026, but the increase itself is striking since “Bidenflation” was one of Trump’s main talking points during the election.
Now to be fair, the report admits that U.S. manufacturing may grow, but only at the cost of shrinking consumer demand and corporate investment.
And while the tariffs and DOGE cuts will reduce the deficit, those effects will reportedly be dwarfed by the deficit increase caused by slower growth and the GOP’s budget plan. [Quote, find “offset”]
Meanwhile, as China’s economic growth is expected to slow moderately from 5% to 4.7% and then 4.3%, its government is taking steps to cushion its population from the pain. [Quote, find “4.7”]
Namely subsidies for a trade-in programme on consumer goods like mobile phones and appliances, as well as increased welfare transfers. [Quote, find “welfare”]
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Produced by: Cory Ray, Philip DeFranco
Edited by: James Girardier, Maxwell Enright, Julie Goldberg, Christian Meeks, Matthew Henry
Art Department: William Crespo
Writing/Research: Chris Tolve, Philip DeFranco
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