March 6, 2026 Economic and Housing Market Update

March 6, 2026

Overview

Reports and articles referenced

Housing data for download

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

• You’ve probably seen headlines that contracts to buy homes are falling apart, but does that sound right to you? I’ve got data showing a much milder trend. I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com® Let’s discuss what this means for buyers, sellers, and others thinking about making a move this spring season.
• Let’s start with the macro picture. We saw a softer than expected February jobs report in which unemployment edged higher and employers shed more than 90,000 jobs. One bright spot: earnings growth continued, actually edging slightly higher. The softer report could mean more tension between the Fed’s two goals, especially if next week’s inflation readings are high, but I don’t expect it to change the March decision, and futures markets suggest that investors also expect the Fed to hold tight.
• Last week mortgage rates dipped below 6%, but this week the conflict in Iran and inflation fears which remain on edge in a higher-tariff rate world have pushed 10-year yields higher. Mortgage rates edged up to 6% and are likely to move higher unless we see deescalation. 
• But it’s vital to keep these moves in context. Last year mortgage rates were above 6.6% and climbed to nearly 6.9% in May. Put simply: mortgage rates are still quite a bit lower than last spring, and I expect them to remain lower–and thus a nice housing market tailwind–even if we see further upticks.
• The better mortgage rate environment is just one of several buyer positives. The Realtor.com February Housing Trends report also showed that new listings climbed even as weather likely kept new listings lower in the Northeast. But the overall increase in active for-sale listings continues to lose momentum and gains have been concentrated in lower-priced tiers in the South and West. This is one of the factors nudging the typical listing price lower. 
• The report also examined data on contract cancellations finding that the share of canceled contracts among homes on the market is in line with historic norms. Cancellations aren’t rare–so both buyers and sellers should keep this in mind as they negotiate–but our data suggest that they’re roughly as common as they usually are at this time of year.
• Looking at Realtor.com housing data on trends in the last week shows that home price softness was steady throughout the month as active listings growth lost momentum. Fortunately, new listings grew for a third week and are logging this growth as we move ever closer to the heart of selling season. This is a key indicator of buyer-seller momentum that I’m watching.
• The reason new listings continue to be so important is because housing supply has not fully recovered from the pandemic shock that exacerbated the pre-existing shortage. In fact, the Realtor.com 2026 Housing Supply Gap report found that the shortage widened somewhat last year and now sits just above 4 million homes nationwide. But it’s important to note that relative to the recent pace of building, the South and West have much smaller gaps while the Northeast and Midwest see more acute housing shortages.
• Finally – we took a look at two luxury markets in these short-supplied regions: Chicago and Philadelphia and found that despite the nearly 800 miles separating these metropolises, their luxury markets look like mirror images.
• You can find it alongside all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research.  You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.

Subscribe to our mailing list to receive monthly updates and notifications on the latest data and research.