Wheat Reverting Lower as USDA Hikes World Production

The wheat complex is falling back into losses on Friday. CBT soft red wheat futures are down 9 to 11 cents as the market trades on Friday. KC HRW futures are 10 to 12 cents in the red at midday. MPLS spring wheat futures are down 5 to 7 cents so far on Friday. 

USDA showed US ending stocks for 2025/26 another 57 mbu higher to 901 mbu, That mainly came as production was increased by 58 mbu to 1.985 bbu as we found in the Small Grains Summary on September 30.  The demand side of the balance sheet was left unchanged.

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World ending stocks were 7.37 MMT higher, taking the total to 271.43 MMT. That came as world production was up 12.69 MMT to 828.89 MMT, with Argentina (+2.5 MMT), Australia (+1.5 MMT), Canada (+1 MMT), Russia (1.5 MMT), the US all seeing an increase.  

Daily Export Sales announcements from USDA were released this morning from the backlog throughout the shutdown, as 110,000 MT of white wheat was reported as sold to Bangladesh on October 2.

The NOAA 7-day QPF shows precip expected to total 1 to 4 inches in parts of the Southern Plains and parts of SRW country in the middle parts of next week.

FranceAgriMer estimates that 89% of the country’s soft wheat crop was 89% planted, with 98% of the crop in good/excellent conditions. The durum crop was estimated at 44%, up from 23% last week.

Dec 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.26 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.41 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Dec 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.15, down 10 3/4 cents,

Mar 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.31 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents,

Dec 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.64 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

On the date of publication,

Austin Schroeder

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.

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